Financial model
The independent SLR financial evaluation, in full
A 25-year discounted cash flow from FY2026 to FY2050, including terminal value. Every figure on this page is taken from SLR Consulting Australia Pty Ltd, November 2025.
Project NPV (15%)
A$3,311,988,259
Initial capex, FY2026–FY2028
A$32,155,000
Operating cost at start-up
A$11.30/t
Maximum pre-tax EBIT (FY2050)
A$1,309,229,595
Source: SLR Consulting Australia Pty Ltd, November 2025 — 25-year discounted cash flow FY2026–FY2050 incl. terminal value. All figures A$.
Valuation
Net present value and discount rate
Project NPV
A$3,311,988,259
Discounted at 15% over FY2026–FY2050, including terminal value.
| Discount-rate component | Rate |
|---|---|
| Risk-free rate | 4% |
| Project risk premium | 7% |
| Country risk premium | 4% |
| Total discount rate | 15% |
Source: SLR Consulting Australia Pty Ltd, November 2025.
Capital expenditure
Initial capex of A$32,155,000, FY2026–FY2028
| Item | A$ | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Processing plant | $20,000,000 | 62.2% |
| Trucking access road | $2,300,000 | 7.2% |
| Site infrastructure | $2,000,000 | 6.2% |
| SSD costs | $1,055,000 | 3.3% |
| CAT 770 haul truck | $1,000,000 | 3.1% |
| 50 t excavator | $1,000,000 | 3.1% |
| CAT 982 front-end loader | $900,000 | 2.8% |
| Further geological investigation | $300,000 | 0.9% |
| Material and property testing | $100,000 | 0.3% |
| Balance not itemised in the summary breakdown | $3,500,000 | 10.9% |
| Total initial capex | $32,155,000 | 100% |
Plus general sustaining capex of A$10,000 a year.
Source: SLR Consulting Australia Pty Ltd, November 2025.
Operating cost
A$11.30/t at start-up
| Activity | A$/t | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Crush & screen | 3.00 | 26.5% |
| Load & haul | 2.00 | 17.7% |
| Quarry general | 2.00 | 17.7% |
| Drill & blast | 1.80 | 15.9% |
| Sales, load & dispatch | 1.50 | 13.3% |
| Clearing & stripping | 1.00 | 8.8% |
| Total operating cost | 11.30 | 100% |
Source: SLR Consulting Australia Pty Ltd, November 2025.
Production and revenue
From 35,000 t a year to 3 Mtpa after SSD approval
| Year | Current consent (t) | Sandstone (t) | Masonry sand (t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 35,000 | 0 | 0 |
| FY2027 | 35,000 | 0 | 0 |
| FY2028 | 0 | 3,000,000 | 50,000 |
| FY2050 | 0 | 3,000,000 | 154,598 |
Stated data points only; the full annual schedule is in the Competent Person's Report, available on request.
| Revenue and earnings | A$ |
|---|---|
| Revenue, FY2028 | $817,018,531 |
| Maximum revenue, FY2050 | $1,411,285,461 |
| Maximum pre-tax EBIT, FY2050 | $1,309,229,595 |
| Implied EBIT margin, FY2050 | 92.8% |
Source: SLR Consulting Australia Pty Ltd, November 2025. Selling-price assumptions were supplied by UPSA and not independently verified.
Logistics
Route to market via the Port of Brisbane
| Component | Basis | A$/t |
|---|---|---|
| Road haulage | 470 km at A$0.15/t/km | 70.50 |
| Ship loading | Port of Brisbane | 13.20 |
| Total to ship | 83.70 |
Source: SLR Consulting Australia Pty Ltd, November 2025.
Sensitivity
Volume and price drive value; cost changes barely move the NPV
| Case | Change in NPV | Resulting NPV | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production 5 Mtpa from 2031 | +$2,214,856,331 | $5,526,844,590 | +66.9% |
| Production 2 Mtpa from 2031 | −$1,107,428,165 | $2,204,560,094 | -33.4% |
| Price +15% | +$539,363,068 | $3,851,351,327 | +16.3% |
| Price +10% | +$359,575,379 | $3,671,563,638 | +10.9% |
| Price +5% | +$179,787,689 | $3,491,775,948 | +5.4% |
| Opex $16/t | −$67,448,317 | $3,244,539,942 | -2% |
| Opex $8/t | +$47,357,329 | $3,359,345,588 | +1.4% |
| Capex +$10M | −$6,575,162 | $3,305,413,097 | -0.2% |
Source: SLR Consulting Australia Pty Ltd, November 2025. Resulting NPV = base NPV plus the stated change.
Important
These are estimates from an independent desktop evaluation and are contingent on the Inferred Resource being upgraded and on State Significant Development approval. They are not a forecast or investment advice. See our forward-looking statements. The Competent Person's Report is available on request under NDA — make an investor enquiry.